Blog - The Contracts Group

Monte Carlo Simulation in Hong Kong Construction By Rahul Pun

TCG — Wed, 21 Jan 2026 07:44:08 +0000

This article offers a balanced perspective on the role of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) within the Hong Kong construction industry. It clarifies that while the traditional Critical Path Method (CPM) remains the industry standard, MCS is a powerful, complementary tool essential for managing uncertainty in complex, high-stakes projects. The analysis details that MCS is primarily utilized for Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis (QSRA), providing probabilistic confidence levels (P50, P80, P90) that transform strategic planning. Key applications include large infrastructure projects, cost-schedule integration, and, most notably, strengthening extension of time claims with compelling quantitative evidence. The piece concludes with three practical recommendations for planning professionals: start selective, invest in analytical skills, and strategically leverage MCS for delay analysis to move beyond subjective opinion to data-backed analysis.

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Pay first, Argue later, challenges to adjudicator by Avan Fan

TCG — Mon, 22 Dec 2025 07:09:35 +0000

The article provides a timely analysis of the limited grounds for challenging an adjudicator's determination under the newly enacted Security of Payment Ordinance (SOPO), which came into force on August 28, 2025. The SOPO introduces a statutory mechanism for the rapid resolution of payment disputes in the construction industry.

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NEC Contract Delay Analysis: A Practitioner's Dilemma: A Hong Kong Perspective

TCG — Thu, 30 Oct 2025 08:35:06 +0000

This article examines the gap between the theoretical expectations of delay analysis under NEC contracts and the practical realities experienced on Hong Kong infrastructure projects. While NEC Clause 63.3 promotes a prospective approach using the latest accepted programme to assess compensation events, practitioners often face outdated or unaccepted programmes that undermine the reliability of prospective analysis. As project conditions evolve rapidly, stale baselines lead to inaccurate assessments, disputes over methodology, and increased commercial tension. The author highlights common causes of this issue—such as delays in programme acceptance—and reviews the strengths and limitations of different delay analysis techniques. The conclusion stresses that consistent programme acceptance is essential to preserving NEC’s collaborative and fair intentions, and to avoiding retrospective dispute scenarios the contract form seeks to prevent.
By Cr Rahul PUN, CMgr, NECReg

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The post NEC Contract Delay Analysis: A Practitioner's Dilemma: A Hong Kong Perspective first appeared on The Contracts Group.