Monte Carlo Simulation in Hong Kong Construction By Rahul Pun

This article offers a balanced perspective on the role of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) within the Hong Kong construction industry. It clarifies that while the traditional Critical Path Method (CPM) remains the industry standard, MCS is a powerful, complementary tool essential for managing uncertainty in complex, high-stakes projects. The analysis details that MCS is primarily utilized for Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis (QSRA), providing probabilistic confidence levels (P50, P80, P90) that transform strategic planning. Key applications include large infrastructure projects, cost-schedule integration, and, most notably, strengthening extension of time claims with compelling quantitative evidence. The piece concludes with three practical recommendations for planning professionals: start selective, invest in analytical skills, and strategically leverage MCS for delay analysis to move beyond subjective opinion to data-backed analysis.

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